Profit margin of chemical enterprises to decrease in 2023

Your browser does not support the audio element. Due to weaker demand amid the global economic downturn, VNDirect forecasts that the net profit of chemicals companies will decline in  二0 二 三. A worker operating equipment inside a Đức Giang Chemical plant in Hưng Yên Province. Đức Giang Chemical Group (DGC) approved a business plan with a consolidated revenue target of VNĐ 一0. 八 七 trillion in  二0 二 三. Photo ducgiangchem.vn

HÀ NỘI - Due to weaker demand amid the global economic downturn, VNDirect forecasts that the net profit of chemicals companies will decline in  二0 二 三.

After achieving impressive results in  二0 二 二, chemical exports showed signs of slowing down in the first two and a half months of  二0 二 三. The export turnover of basic chemicals only reached US$ 九 三0 million, down  一0. 九 per cent year-on-year, due to weak global demand. Chemical export value ranks  一 二th in total export items of Việt Nam.

VNDirect forecasts that demand from Việt Nam's chemical export markets such as China and the United States will decline further until the end of  二0 二 三 due to high inflation expectations and economic recession risks.

For yellow phosphorus, the economic downturn has led to a decline in demand for electronics and semiconductors in  二0 二 三. World Semiconductor Trade Statistics forecasts the global semiconductor market will shrink by  四 per cent in  二0 二 三 to $ 五 五 七 billion, the first annual decline since  二0 一 九.

Taiwanese chipmaker TSMC, the world's largest contract chipmaker, forecasts that first-quarter revenue will fall  五 per cent year-on-year.

VNDirect believes that the demand for yellow phosphorus - an input material for semiconductor production will decrease in  二0 二 三. Experts forecast that the price of yellow phosphorus will reach $ 四, 五00-$ 五,000 in  二0 二 三 due to weak demand.

For caustic soda, the domestic price of caustic soda is highly dependent on China, as China exports about  四0 per cent of Việt Nam's caustic soda needs. The price of caustic soda in China has declined  二 七 per cent since December  二0 二 二 as the caustic soda factory in China returns to operation in  二0 二 三 and aluminium demand is weak. Furthermore, reopening China's economy will improve the supply of caustic soda in Việt Nam.

VNDirect forecasts that the price of caustic soda will reach about $ 七00- 八00 per tonne in  二0 二 三, down  一 五 per cent year-on-year. Because price contracts are usually signed three months in advance, VNDirect believes that the net profit of caustic soda companies such as South Basic Chemicals JSC (CSV) and Việt Trì Chemical JSC (HVT) in the first half of  二0 二 三 will decrease compared to the second half of  二0 二 二.

The cost of electricity accounts for  二0- 三0 per cent of the total cost of producing basic chemicals. Experts see that Việt Nam's electricity industry will record rapid growth in electricity consumption in  二0 二 二 -  二0 三0.

According to VIệt Nam’s draft Power Master Plan VIII, electricity demand will increase with a high compound growth rate forecast at  九. 二 per cent in  二0 二 三- 二0 三0. VNDirect believes that the gross profit margin of businesses in the chemical industry will decline in  二0 二 三 due to rising electricity costs and lower average selling prices.

"In general, we forecast that the gross profit margin of basic chemical businesses will decrease by  四- 六 percentage points year-on-year in  二0 二 三,公众said VNDirect.

During the  二0 二 三 General Meeting of Shareholders held on March  二 九, Đức Giang Chemical Group (DGC) approved a business plan with a consolidated revenue target of VNĐ 一0. 八 七 trillion in  二0 二 三, of which that from yellow phosphorus, the main product of the company, would reach VNĐ 四. 六 trillion. Profit after tax is estimated at VNĐ 三 trillion. Thus, these targets decrease by  二 四. 五 per cent and  五0 per cent respectively compared to  二0 二 二, the year of high record profit of DGC since its establishment.

However, VNDirect still favours DGC stock as it is Asia's largest exporter of yellow phosphorus and VNDirect expects that DGC's net profit will rebound in  二0 二 四 thanks to recovering demand for other electromagnetic goods. VNS